Update, 5:30pm eastern time, Dec 31 (1:30am Jan01 kenya time):
Raila is unharmed and calling for peaceful protest rally on Jan 3.
Photos of Raila and colleagues here.
Chris Blattman's news roundup
Ryan Sheely's updates
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Update, 12:15pm eastern time, Dec 31 (8:15pm kenya time):
Refugees from Kikuyu Agressors
This email just came from my friend, M., in Kenya now:
[Reporting from Eldoret]
We've just now received 20 Kalenjin refugees from a few miles away. They say that Kikuyus, dressed in police uniforms, are burning Kalenjin homes in their village. The men stayed behind, but sent the women and children to stay somewhere closer to Eldoret. I do not think the family we are staying with knows them, and I'm not sure how we will find a place for them to sleep, or food for them to eat past tonight. They have almost nothing with them, as those old enough to carry all came with infants. This is a very sad situation.
NTV is reporting that 14 people died in Eldoret last night, and that police have been given orders to shoot to kill any protesters. Raila cancelled the rally today, and rescheduled it for Thursday, though I don't imagine the government will sanction it then, either.
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Update, 12:10pm eastern time, Dec 31 (8:10pm kenya time):
Kenya is not Rwanda.
The BBC is finally carrying the election fraud story:
Here is the BBC Kenya story in which EU Election Observer Alexander Graf Lambsdorff tells the BBC that "Anomalies amounted to 20,000-25,000 votes in one constituency alone,", and that "Results declared by the electoral commission in Nairobi from one constituency differed from those announced locally." "All the changes favoured the same candidate."
The New York Times has a powerful photo spread:
NY Times Kenya Photos Here
But from my read of events, the descent into ethnic violence does not reveal a genocide that has been simmering in the making all along. It reveals a deep frustration with the stolen election, and a large population of youth willing to loot, burn, and beat people they see as 'the other' as a means of protest. To the extent that lines have been drawn, they are more geographic than tribal: Luos are a Nilotic group in Western Kenya; Luhyas are a Bantu group in Western Kenya; and Kikuyus are a Bantu group in Central Kenya. The Luo and Luhya are seen as together in this conflict, against the Kikuyus. But all my contacts wish there would be no violence at all, tribal or otherwise. Like protests in the US, malicious bands of young men do most of the serious violence, while large crowds simply protest the election. The violence doesn't make sense: in Busia, Luos and Luhyas attack Kisii shops, perhaps seen there as potentially with Kikuyus. But in Kisii town (see report further down on this page), Kisiis are attacking Kikuyus. This is nothing like a genocide. It is a stolen election, deep frustration, and senseless violence.
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Update, 9:50am eastern time, Dec 31 (5:50pm kenya time):
- - - - -
As of an hour ago,
Kenyan pundit is among several sources reporting that Raila has scheduled
another rally for Jan 3rd, and has filed the proper paperwork for this one.
Kenyan pundit also reports large military aircraft (2 C-130 Hercules)
landing in Eldoret.
Link: the Kenyan pundit.
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Update, 9:10am eastern time, Dec 31 (5:10pm kenya time):
- - - - -
I just spoke on the phone to the a friend of mine, T. who was the
officer in charge of one polling station in Western Province.
T. says that the count went
smoothly in his areas. However: there is now no food in the stores;
the banks are closed; all Kikuyus in some Western towns, such as
Busia, are being rounded up and taken to police stations, probably
for their own protection; T. has seen dead bodies today and yesterday,
attesting to the
BBC and Al Jazeera reports of many people being killed in violence
around the country.
The rally in Uhuru park where Raila had announced that ODM would hold
an alternative inauguration seems not to have happened, or at least
the park is surrounded by the military and the police, and there are
no reports in Western that a rally ultimately took place.
Nobody I have spoken to has seen evidence of Raila's whereabouts or
safety since yesterday.
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Update, 8:40am eastern time, Dec 31 (4:40pm kenya time):
- - - - -
Received this email from my friend M. 3 hours ago:
We left our house today to go to [Rift Town 1] around 9am this morning, and the town was quiet. There were groups of young men hanging out, and a large encampment of refugees inside the grounds at the police station, but no signs of burnt buildings or destruction. The military and police were around, but not in great numbers. Only a few shops were open, but the market in the middle of town was bustling, though only about half-full, our friend J. reported. Somewhat humorously, a Kikuyu business man across the street from the police station had one of the only open shops, and was trying to sell 250 shilling Safari airtime cards for 500 shillings.
We decided we would try to make the trip to [Rift Town 2], where XXX's family is currently staying, but we only made it about three or four miles north of [Rift Town 1] before we ran into a civilian roadblock. The whole road was impassable- broken glass and other debris in the street. We got out and watched the roadblock from about a quarter mile away, along with over a hundred other spectators. Over fifteen minutes, six cars attempted to pass, and all but one turned back; the only truck that went through drove down into a ditch on the side of the road to get past. The people we talked to were all nice, but laughed at the idea of traveling all the way to [Rift Town 2]. Apparently a number of roadblocks of this sort were in the way, some manned by more aggressive individuals. A few miles past the roadblock a heavy plume of smoke was rising, and grew bigger as we watched. We started to worry about being cut off from our house on the other end of [Rift Town 1], and turned back. There is a feeling of quiet before the storm throughout the town, but no one knows for sure what will happen.
Other than that, there is not much to report. The media blackout is complete- there is no news outside the internet, and I can only load one page before it cuts me off. We have heard a variety of rumors: Ruto has been shot; Ruto and Raila have been arrested; the rank and file military in Nairobi are revolting, and intend to support Raila (that one is probably too optimistic); the head police commissioner has resigned in protest; Kikuyus have decided to fight back, and are organizing groups of young men to kill Kalenjins and Luos... KBC is the only station reporting news, and all they say is that the country is peaceful, and all the disturbances have quieted. Just now, M.S., our host, came into say that messages are going out to the villages around [Rift Town 1], mobilizing the young men to come into the town center.
So I guess we are stuck here for a few more days. We'll let you know what happens. Almost certainly the events at the rally this afternoon in Nairobi will dictate the mood of the people. Just now NTV returned to the air, but only to announce that Riala and Ruto have not been arrested, and that anyone attending the rally in Nairobi will be arrested. Though NTV presented a lot of Kibaki-biased information the night before the election, they have been the bravest station, by far, as they were the only media group to continue to report news after the blackout last night, albeit for only an hour or so, and with constant references to a tape delay.
Thank you for all of your kind words and concern. We feel safe here, and intend to wait a few more days before abandoning our intention of getting to [Rift Town 2] (and giving me a chance to meet XXX's father, and two brothers for the first time.)
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Update, 8:00am eastern time, Dec 31 (4:00pm kenya time):
- - - - -
Received this email from a friend of a friend of a friend:
John Michuki and Mwai Kibaki want to declare a State of Emergency so that Parliament swearing in is delayed as much as possible. It is now clear that a 'Vote of No. Confidence Motion' has been mooted by O.D.M. and will be their first agenda when the house meets. They have overwhelming numbers to do it despite Kalonzo Musyoka's backing.
Other fringe parties have now deserted Kibaki and are comparing him to Robert Mugabe! Kalonzo is to be made the Vice-President. There are G.S.U. personnel in and outside every media house and radio stations. The public is to be kept in the dark for as long as possible. It is confirmed that Raila has been arrested again and Ruto's whereabouts are unknown, fueling reports that he has been shot and is being treated somewhere. Kalenjins are getting more agitated and all Kikuyu businesses are being burnt down.
Kisiis have also gone on the rampage and 13 Kikuyus are reported to have been killed in Kisii town.
I'll keep you posted as I receive more news. In the meantime K.B.C. is airing a programme on Monkeys and Locusts and Pre-Election programmes while K.T.N. was showing C.N.N. news that was aired 24 hours ago!
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Update, 11:30pm eastern time, Dec 30 (7:30am kenya time, Dec 31):
- - - - -
This just in from a friend in Rift Valley Province:
Just down the road last night we could hear the Kikuyus are being chased out of their homes, but so far the violence has been tribal. [XXX] talked to her family in Kapenguria, and they said that Kalenjins were going house to house in search of Kikuyus and Kambas. It is a very sad situation.
Update, 10pm eastern time, Dec 30:
People are having difficulty reaching their contacts via phone in Kenya.
M.'s latest email to me, seven hours ago:
They are ordering all news shows to suspend all live broadcasts. We can hear the riots in [Town removed], and smell the smoke. The last report was 7 people were dead there. I imagine they will shut down the internet, but we would appreciate any news you here in the next day or two. Raila held a news conference, but the news cut it off within 30 seconds.
This is a coup.
---------------------This is from my friend M., who is texting to me live from Kenya. This is updated as of 9:55am Eastern time, Dec 30 2007.
ECK officials have stood up and said the local election counts do not match the numbers being announced at the center.
Kibaki was just declared the winner on state media in the last ten minutes.
Here is M.'s latest:
- - - - - -ODM just held a press conference at the same place where the ECK has been announcing results (KICC) and read off the name of 48 constituencies where the paperwork had obvious holes- most in Central and Eastern. Apparently there was a form (called 16A) signed by the witnesses from all parties, attesting to the results, which was missing in these constituencies. These were also the places where the results announced by the ECK did not agree with the results read out at the polling stations, and later reported on TV. Even the Kikuyu commentator on KTN called for Kibaki to concede when the press conference ended. This evidence was uncovered in front of the ECK, and in their own files, so they have what they need to act. We are all hoping that Kibaki will heed the call and concede- wait, PNU is starting a press conference.
They are saying that ODM had no right to take the stage at KICC, and that ODM is trying to bully the ECK. The man speaking is young- maybe 30 or 35, and seems like a mouthpiece. (ODM's statements have all come from Pentagon members.) He wants ODM to go to court to address these issues- but Raila rejected the idea of going to court earlier. He claims that ODM is responsible for inciting the public, (and he is not talking about the 48 constituencies.) Others are joining in, but there statement does not make much sense, in light of the previous statement; they are pretty much standing their ground. They are particularly unhappy with ODM announcing that their tally had Raila winning by 500,000 votes, which does seem inflammatory, but also seems to be true, given the numbers the media were reporting earlier.
The ECK has been MIA since last night. I can only imagine the battles going on behind closed doors right now.
---------------------I'm sorry to report, but Kenya appears to be headed for chaos. We are already wondering if we will be able to make it back to Nairobi in two and a half weeks for my flight, or if we will need to leave earlier.
The ECK convened the media around 4:15pm, apparently to announce that Kibaki had won. Before they were able to accomplish this, they announced a disputed result from a local constituency, ODM loyalists raised a ruckus in the room, and after several minutes of chaos, the meeting was adjourned without an announcement. ODM is now producing observers and even a member of the ECK who claim to have witnessed alteration of results. One of these observers, from a local polling station, claims that the ballot boxes were stuffed after the final tally, so that any attempt to return to the original ballots is now fruitless. The only documents that ODM has to fight with are these form 16A's, which we have heard much about today. The forms are supposed to contain the constituency-level results, attested to by observers from all the parties. These results were read out in public, and reported by the media. ODM's demand is to have an open tallying of the results contained on these forms, but I suspect that even this evidence is now being destroyed or altered in such a way as to make them useless.
It seems that Kibaki's loyalists on the ECK are forcing an announcement, and while ODM was able to delay it, in the next few hours ECK will announce Kibaki as the winner. It is pretty obvious what is happening, and that the country will not accept it. Certainly Raila and ODM seem unwilling to accept it. They seem to be facing a hard choice: accept a "cooked" result, or fight on at high price to the peoples of the country. They seem inclined to take the second option. Already they are talking about their fears for their own safety in their press conferences.
The media seems scared. Already the calm that had held sway today is breaking apart, according to media reports coming in as I type. The military is in the streets throughout the country, and Kisumu in particular seems likely to experience troubles. Kikuyu commentators (more than a few) are calling for the ECK to rethink their decision. It seems that a few people have decided it is better to rule a police state than be a minority party in a democracy. Perhaps this is too alarmist, but from the reactions of the people I am with, and the people on TV, this appears to be the direction things are headed.
I'm not scared for my safety, perhaps in part because I am surrounded by Kalenjins in the middle of their territory. But traveling anywhere in the country will likely be difficult, and I have seen how chaos opens the door for criminals to operate unhindered. Hopefully we can make it to Nairobi without too much trouble. Kibaki has not appeared on TV since I arrived, and everyone seems anxious to have him address the nation.
Will write more as events unfold.